Slot probability lab
Average RTP across the major B2B studios, the house edge that comes with it, and a model that turns any max-win cap into real odds — from a 50x tickle to a 50,000x jackpot. Set your own multiplier and bet size, and see exactly how long the machine expects to run before it pays.
Educational model, not a strategy. Every configuration on this page has negative expected value — that is what an RTP below 100% means. The odds shown are reconstructed from published RTP, volatility and max-win figures, not from any studio's internal PAR sheet, so treat them as the right order of magnitude rather than an exact number for one specific game.
RTP and max-win figures as published in each studio's flagship game info screen. The three odds columns are this page's model applied to those figures — same maths for every row, so the comparison is fair even where it is approximate.
| Studio | Flagship | RTP band | Edge | Volatility | Max win | 100x | 1,000x | 5,000x | 10,000x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pragmatic Play | Gates of Olympus 1000 | 96.50%low band 94.50% | 3.50% | Extreme | 15,000x | 1 in 1,172 | 1 in 89,265 | 1 in 3.08M | 1 in 14.1M |
| Nolimit CityEvolution group | Mental | 96.08%low band 94.00% | 3.92% | Extreme | 116,349x | 1 in 1,178 | 1 in 89,705 | 1 in 3.09M | 1 in 14.2M |
| Hacksaw Gaming | Wanted Dead or a Wild | 96.38%low band 94.00% | 3.62% | Extreme | 12,500x | 1 in 1,174 | 1 in 89,363 | 1 in 3.08M | 1 in 14.2M |
| Relax Gaming | Money Train 4 | 96.20%low band 94.00% | 3.80% | Extreme | 100,000x | 1 in 1,177 | 1 in 89,592 | 1 in 3.09M | 1 in 14.2M |
| Play'n GO | Book of Dead | 96.21%low band 94.20% | 3.79% | High | 5,000x | 1 in 1,707 | 1 in 269,909 | 1 in 15.1M | unreachable |
| Push Gaming | Fat Banker | 96.47%low band 94.00% | 3.53% | High | 10,000x | 1 in 1,703 | 1 in 269,258 | 1 in 15.1M | 1 in 85.1M |
| Big Time GamingEvolution group | Bonanza Megaways | 96.00%low band 94.00% | 4.00% | High | 12,000x | 1 in 1,711 | 1 in 270,587 | 1 in 15.1M | 1 in 85.6M |
| Games Global | Immortal Romance II | 96.20%low band 94.00% | 3.80% | High | 12,150x | 1 in 1,708 | 1 in 270,025 | 1 in 15.1M | 1 in 85.4M |
| Yggdrasil | Valley of the Gods | 96.30%low band 94.00% | 3.70% | High | 5,000x | 1 in 1,705 | 1 in 269,657 | 1 in 15.1M | unreachable |
| Thunderkick | Esqueleto Explosivo 2 | 96.16%low band 94.00% | 3.84% | High | 7,492x | 1 in 1,708 | 1 in 270,103 | 1 in 15.1M | unreachable |
| PG Soft | Fortune Tiger | 96.81%low band 94.00% | 3.19% | Medium | 2,500x | 1 in 3,504 | 1 in 1.42M | unreachable | unreachable |
| Red TigerEvolution group | Gonzo's Quest Megaways | 95.70%low band 94.00% | 4.30% | High | 21,000x | 1 in 1,717 | 1 in 271,453 | 1 in 15.2M | 1 in 85.8M |
| NetEntEvolution group | Starburst | 96.09%low band 94.00% | 3.91% | Low | 500x | 1 in 16,419 | unreachable | unreachable | unreachable |
| ELK Studios | Cygnus 4 | 95.50%low band 94.00% | 4.50% | Extreme | 25,000x | 1 in 1,185 | 1 in 90,225 | 1 in 3.11M | 1 in 14.3M |
| Average across 14 studios | 96.19% | 3.81% | — | 24,607x | Odds vary with volatility and cap — see the lab below | ||||
A higher cap does not mean a better game. Nolimit City's six-figure ceiling and NetEnt's 500x ceiling both sit behind roughly the same 96% RTP — the cap only changes how the same returned money is distributed.
Pick a studio, or override RTP, cap, volatility and stake by hand. Every table below reacts immediately.
Pick a studio preset or type your own numbers. Everything below recalculates instantly from these five inputs.
Your own numbers. Pick a studio above to load its published RTP, cap and volatility band.
House edge 3.50% — the only number that never changes in your favour.
Anything above the cap is unreachable, whatever the paytable suggests.
Long dead stretches, then everything arrives in one feature. Tail carries 62% of RTP above 12x.
200x your bet
Type any multiplier — say the 5,000x–10,000x range this game advertises — and read the odds straight off.
Chance of a single spin paying at least each multiplier, at $1.00 per spin, RTP 96.50%, extreme volatility, 10,000x cap.
| Multiplier | Pays | Per-spin odds | Per-spin % | In 500 spins | In 100k spins | Avg spins to hit | Wager to hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50x | $50 | 1 in 444 | 0.225% | 67.6% | 100.0% | 444 | $444 |
| 100x | $100 | 1 in 1,172 | 0.085% | 34.7% | 100.0% | 1,172 | $1,172 |
| 500x | $500 | 1 in 19,420 | 0.0051% | 2.54% | 99.4% | 19,420 | $19,420 |
| 1,000x | $1,000 | 1 in 89,231 | 0.0011% | 0.559% | 67.4% | 89,231 | $89,231 |
| 5,000x | $5,000 | 1 in 3.08M | 0.000032% | 0.016% | 3.20% | 3,077,870 | $3,077,870 |
| 10,000x | $10,000 | 1 in 14.1M | 0.0000071% | 0.0035% | 0.705% | 14,142,177 | $14,142,177 |
| 50,000x | $50,000 | unreachable | 0% | 0% | 0% | — | — |
Rows greyed out sit above the 10,000x cap. “Wager to hit” is the money that passes through the machine on average before the first hit — not what you lose, which is that figure times 3.50%.
Same game, five stake levels. The jackpot column uses the 10,000x cap and your 500-spin session.
| Bet | Wagered / hour | Expected loss / hour | Wagered / session | Expected loss / session | Max win pays | Max win chance / session |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.20 | $120 | -$4 | $100 | -$4 | $2,000 | 0.0035% |
| $1.00 | $600 | -$21 | $500 | -$18 | $10,000 | 0.0035% |
| $5.00 | $3,000 | -$105 | $2,500 | -$88 | $50,000 | 0.0035% |
| $20.00 | $12,000 | -$420 | $10,000 | -$350 | $200,000 | 0.0035% |
| $100.00 | $60,000 | -$2,100 | $50,000 | -$1,750 | $1,000,000 | 0.0035% |
Expected loss scales linearly with stake; the odds of the jackpot do not move at all. Betting bigger buys a bigger prize, never a better chance.
Each session: $200 bankroll, $1.00 per spin, up to 500 spins, sampled from the same fitted distribution. Deterministic seed, so identical inputs give identical results.
Simulated return 96.60% against a 96.50% target — the gap is sampling noise and shrinks as sessions increase. Best single spin observed across all sessions: 6,306x.
No black box — here is the whole model in five lines.
The one number that survives every assumption: at 96.19% average RTP, a 3.81% edge applies to every dollar wagered, every spin, forever.
